Comments Off on The 3-Day Pattern That Suggests A Bearish Edge For Today

The 3-Day Pattern That Suggests A Bearish Edge For Today

The last 3 days have created an interesting setup.  Thursday SPY made a new 50-day closing high.  Friday SPY posted an inside day.  And then Monday was another 50-day closing high.  This has only happened 16 other times since 1999.  Below is a list of all the instances along with their performance the next day.

Risk/reward here heavily favors the short side. The average drawdown is nearly 4 times the size the average run-up. Also notable is that every instance saw drawdown of at least 0.35% the next day, but only 1 of the 16 instances saw run-up of at least 0.35%.  Futures are up 2.5 points right now about an hour before the open, but there may be some headwinds based on this pattern.

Filed in: Technical Analysis

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