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About Jim Picerno

James Picerno is editor of CapitalSpectator.com, a financial/economics blog launched in 2003 that’s become a popular and respected source for independent analysis of markets, investment strategy and the economy. He’s been a journalist focused on finance and economics for more than 20 years. Currently, Picerno is also a writer with Wealth Manager magazine, a trade publication for independent financial advisors with high-net-worth clientele. Previously he was a reporter for Bloomberg and Dow Jones. In addition, his freelance articles have appeared in variety of publications over the years, including a series of real estate stories in Barron’s. Picerno graduated from Rutgers University in 1981 with a B.A. in journalism and history.

Here are my most recent posts

An Old Forecast Gets A New Close-up… Again

On Tuesday, Lakshman Achuthan, the co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, made another visit to Bloomberg TV and insisted that last year marked the beginning of a new ...

Can The Fed Prevent The Next Recession?

“None of the U.S. expansions of the past 40 years died in bed of old age,” MIT economics professor Rudiger Dornbusch famously observed in 1997. “Every one was murdered by the ...

What Should We Expect For Long Run Risk Premiums?

If you built a portfolio with a market-value weighted mix of all the major asset classes, what risk premium would you expect? I’m looking for a 5.2% return, give or take. To be more ...

Pondering Simplicity In Asset Allocation

“The biggest pitfall [for all investors who decide on an asset mix and invest accordingly] is behavioral, when people don’t want to rebalance,” Brad McMillan, chief ...

Housing Starts In May Rebound After April’s Sharp Correction

New residential construction in the US increased last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 914,000, which is nearly 7% higher than April’s count. Meanwhile, newly issued ...

Looking For Macro Policy’s Sweet Spot

How can both sides be right and wrong at the same time? Well, it’s economics, for a start. And if we’re talking of the dismal science, then timing is a factor too. No wonder ...

What’s The Message In The Ongoing Slide In Inflation Expectations?

It’s still a mystery… for now. The sharp divergence between rising stock prices and falling inflation expectations has persisted since February. It’s unclear what this ...

Same Old, Same Old: Modest Growth For The Labor Market

If May is a tipping point that leads to nasty things for the business cycle, it’s not obvious in today’s payrolls report from the Labor Department. Although quite a lot of ink has ...

Stocks & Inflation Expectations: Diverging Paths, Many Questions

The US stock market and inflation expectations have been going their separate ways for the past two months, which is something new by the standard of the last five years. Is this a ...

Now It’s Really Time For A Flat Tax

If the scandal over monitoring political groups that forced the acting commissioner of the IRS to resign this week doesn’t inspire dismantling the tax-collecting agency and introducing ...