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About Jeff Miller

Jeff Miller, author of A Dash of Insight, is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy.

Jeff has worked for market makers at the Chicago Board Options Exchange where his approach included finding anomalies in the standard option pricing models and developing new forecasting techniques.

He has set up a general research consultancy for professional traders at all of the Chicago financial exchanges, and has managed investment partnerships and individual accounts through NewArc Investments Inc.

Here are my most recent posts


A Volatility Cocktail!

This week brings the makings of an explosive volatility cocktail: Important economic data; Key Q1 earnings reports; Options expiration; A short trading week; and An edgy market environment. This ...
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Yellen Takes the Stage

  Rightly or wrongly, markets continue the Fed fixation. Many expect (or demand?) a change in Fed policy. This week marks the first FOMC meeting with Janet Yellen as the Chair. ...

The misunderstood “mystery method” behind big market blunders

The insightful investor understands mean reversion. It is a mystery concept for most – fancy talk. I will attempt a commonsense explanation with some relevant examples. In conclusion, ...

What is the Market Message?

After a bad week in U.S. equities and a really bad week in emerging markets, is there a relevant message? If so, does it matter for day traders, swing traders, investors, or all of ...

Can Earnings Growth Propel Stocks Higher?

If you could know one thing about stocks in the coming year, it would be what to expect from corporate earnings. The Q4 2013 reports will provide a preview, with attention starting ...

Will “Good News” be Good for Markets?

Suppose you knew –right now, at the start of the week – that the payroll employment report would show an extreme number. With 200K jobs expected, suppose it were to be 350K? Or ...

An End to the Tapering Obsession?

Over the last two weeks we have had an avalanche of economic data – mostly good news. The market reaction has been mixed, because so much of the “hot money” has a Fed ...

Will Consumers Open Their Wallets?

Over the last few weeks I have highlighted several changing market concerns. We worried about the government shutdown and the debt ceiling. More recently my emphasis has moved from ...

Do Sidelined Investors Face Upside Risk?

Last week I asked whether it was time for the regular year-end rally. This was a pretty good guess about the media focus for last week. With little fresh data on the calendar, it is ...

An End to the Debt Limit Stalemate?

In chess, a stalemate is a drawn game. Chess players study endgames, where small advantages become big wins. Computers have now solved these endgames – all of them! Some require ...