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About Jeff Miller

Jeff Miller, author of A Dash of Insight, is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy.

Jeff has worked for market makers at the Chicago Board Options Exchange where his approach included finding anomalies in the standard option pricing models and developing new forecasting techniques.

He has set up a general research consultancy for professional traders at all of the Chicago financial exchanges, and has managed investment partnerships and individual accounts through NewArc Investments Inc.

Here are my most recent posts


Will the Fed’s Experiment End Badly?

Put together these ingredients: The biggest weekly market decline in two years, the winding down of earnings season, and a light week for economic data. The result? Financial TV producers ...

Can Earnings Growth Reignite the Stock Rally?

To the surprise of many observers, stocks have survived a series of recent challenges. As Q214 earnings reports starts begin, the questions has changed: Can strong corporate earnings ...

Is it time for a mid-course correction?

Is it time for a mid-course correction? I expect the punditry to assemble the evidence, with each concluding that (s)he has been right all along! Prior Theme Recap Last week I expected ...

Economic Fireworks Ahead?

With the stunning decline in Q1 GDP, the health of the US economy has once again taken center stage. The week ahead is shortened by a Friday holiday, but is packed with important data ...

Time to Sell in May?

Can positive economic trends overcome the weight of market seasonality? We all love simple rules, especially when supported by data. Throw in a rhyme or some alliteration and you ...

Will Springtime Bring Some Optimism?

Some weeks feature a contrast between past and future — a possible inflection point. Here are the current elements: Important economic data with a forward look; Earnings news ...

A Volatility Cocktail!

This week brings the makings of an explosive volatility cocktail: Important economic data; Key Q1 earnings reports; Options expiration; A short trading week; and An edgy market environment. This ...
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Yellen Takes the Stage

  Rightly or wrongly, markets continue the Fed fixation. Many expect (or demand?) a change in Fed policy. This week marks the first FOMC meeting with Janet Yellen as the Chair. ...

The misunderstood “mystery method” behind big market blunders

The insightful investor understands mean reversion. It is a mystery concept for most – fancy talk. I will attempt a commonsense explanation with some relevant examples. In conclusion, ...

What is the Market Message?

After a bad week in U.S. equities and a really bad week in emerging markets, is there a relevant message? If so, does it matter for day traders, swing traders, investors, or all of ...